Bush Stars in That 80's Show
March 23,2006

The newest retro craze is cold war foreign policy. It may be working, but there are definite differences this time around.

ETA, the Basque separatist group in Northwest Spain / Southwest France, declared a permanent ceasefire this week. Along with the increasingly benign Sinn Fein in Ireland, Europe seems to be a lot less tolerant of homegrown terrorism these days. The bombings in Madrid and London after 9/11 brought this home. Similarly, the West seems fully united in its diplomatic and financial pressure on Hamas, the terrorist group recently elected to power in the Palestinian Territories. And, don’t forget the cultural assault on Europe after the Mohammed cartoons.

It would seem that recent events have had a somewhat unifying effect on the US-EU relations. Bush (and thus the US) is still unpopular – no doubt. However, this has been an interesting turn of events that may foretell the future of the “The West.”

There were very strong European voices against Reagan’s cold war approach in the 1980’s. President Reagan was under enormous pressure home and abroad to ratchet-down the rhetoric against the Communists. With a strong partner in Margaret Thatcher, the US and Great Britain led a sometimes reluctant West into applying unrelenting pressure on the Eastern Bloc until it was crushed from within.

Is this the same story repeating itself in the Middle East? It’s too early to tell, but clearly Bush has been using the Reagan playbook for some time. Bush’s strategic use of the term “evil,” is an obvious parallel. The fact that Cheney and Rumsfeld are cold war veterans should not be overlooked either.

Like the iron curtain and the Soviet Union, should Iraq stabilize and Hamas be financially starved into submission, the resulting new era will affect US foreign policy for decades. That is the unstated but obvious plan.

However, some things are very different this time around:

1) We attacked. Reagan certainly built the military machine, but there were never any direct confrontations. Moderating voices in the Muslim world were quieted when the US invaded Iraq. Centrist voices want diplomacy and peace, but they cannot champion the cause when their cultural brothers and sisters are under a military occupation.

2) It’s religion and not just ideology. Communism was beaten to a great extent by the information revolution. As truth about the West made its way into the closed societies of the East, freedom spread quickly. Blue jeans, rock music, and other signs of liberty gained increasing momentum until it reached a saturation point. In the case of radical Islam, it’s these very things that repulse many of the masses. The internal fight between freedom and cultural blasphemy may take decades to play-out.

3) The war front. The cold war had well-defined geographic boundaries – Eastern Europe against Western Europe and the US. This new war front is virtual. While clearly there are enemy states, the boundaries aren’t always so clear. The DP World ports fiasco is an example of how we are still uncomfortable with this grey area.

4) China and Russia. The cold war was between two world superpowers and their clearly defined camps. There are now powers whose side is not so clear. China and Russia have significant political muscle and their pseudo allegiances with Iran, Syria, North Korea, Cuba and others presents a myriad of scenarios that need to be kept in perspective as we plan diplomatic, economic and military responses to various world events.

I’m not a fan of big hair, parachute pants, bubblegum rock and rubik’s cubes. Like it our not, they’re back baby. We PurpleThinkers objectively see where we’re going. But, we also know it’s a big gamble to say Iranians like blue jeans as much as Russians do.

 

 

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