Iran But Couldn't Hide
April 18,2006

Note to Christiane Amanpour: I know it’s pronounced “Ear rahn.” Problem is, you cannot make clever puns with such a pronunciation – and this one is pretty good for a change.

Most international news stories point back to Iran these days – even the less obvious ones. Consider the following:

- The Iranian nuclear standoff with the U.N.

- The recent bombing in Tel Aviv, killing 9, was conducted by a revived Islamic Jihad and funded by Iran

- The ongoing insurgency in Iraq is spurred on by Iranian pundits and arguably funded by Iran.

- The new Palestinian government run by Hamas has been cut-off from most Western funding, but was recently propped-up by an Iranian pledge of $50 million.

- The U.S. proposal to strengthen ties with India is partly to produce a strong partner near Iran’s border.

- Oil prices just topped $70 a barrel. ‘Nuff said.

- I’m sure Angelina Jolie news can be traced to Iran somehow, we’re working on it.

It’s unnerving to hear Iran openly call for the destruction is Israel and not-so-secretly fund terrorist organizations -- both while building a nuclear enrichment program.

How do you handle relations with a country hell-bent on destabilizing the Middle East? Very carefully. No answer to the standoff seems satisfactory given what is at stake. While Bush comments that all options remain in play, the diplomatic route seems to be the only option at this point. The costs of military confrontation are simply too high.

This is not to say Bush is against floating a trial balloon. The New Yorker recently asserted the Bush Administration is planning a military strike of Iranian nuclear labs. We PurpleThinkers believe this may be a Bush administration news plant to see how the world reacts. The implied question is, “exactly how scared is the world of a nuclear Iran?” The answer is, “not as much as they should be.”

The response from the world powers was overwhelmingly negative to this story. Dire warnings were expected from Iran, but they came from all over Europe and Asia as well. The Sunday Times of London reports that 40 thousand suicide bombers are trained and ready to fan-out across the globe as soon as the U.S. attacks.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is smart, but not as much as he is lucky. He inherited power just as the stars have aligned in Iran’s favor. Iranians are fiercely nationalistic, even if they aren’t crazy about fundamentalist Islam. The war in Iraq has solidified opposition to the U.S. and energy hungry China and India have guaranteed the need for Iranian oil. This perfect storm of circumstances cannot be quelled quickly or easily.

Recommendation? PurpleThink is staffed by political scientists and military strategists from around the globe (tongue placed firmly in cheek). As such, world leaders should take our advice without question.

We should continue to press for U.N. sanctions, IAEA monitoring and Security Council resolutions condemning Iranian rhetoric and nuclear ambition. Having said this, expect nothing to come of it. China and Russia have much to gain from derailing U.N. intervention and will continue to play spoiler.

For the first time in a while, Europe is unified with the U.S. on an issue. The E.U. can enhance U.S. credibility and jointly apply pressure. Thus, a one-two punch of diplomatic and military pressure should come from a reinvigorated NATO. NATO is uniquely positioned to confront Iran on this issue. While not chartered as a diplomatic organization, NATO can provide a powerful platform from which to issue strong and consistent Western condemnation, backed with the strongest military force in the world.

Iran recently took a chapter from North Korea and commenced massive military exercises off-shore designed to bully the world. This is also good for the gander. NATO should commence massive cold war-esque exercises in the Indian Ocean with French, German, British, and U.S. forces coordinating a show of force. We should not pre-emptively attack Iran, but we should damn well threaten it with one voice right from their doorstep.

In short, PurpleThinkers see a silver-lining to the Iran crisis – no matter how faint. There are moderating voices in the Arab world (including in Iran) that have been silenced by a fractured and squabbling West. If a united West can emerge from this chaos, the whole world will benefit as a result.

Maybe if Bradjelina choose to have their baby in Iran, the world will stand up and take notice.
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