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The Hezbollah Virus
July 18,2006So your doctor tells you that you have a disease. It will cause injury and possibly death if left untreated. However, if you do nothing then you can put-off painful treatment.
Such is the nature of the Hezbollah Virus. Lebanon has been an infected body for some time. Dr. U.N. prescribed the medicine necessary by requiring Hezbollah be disarmed. Unfortunately, the Lebanese government chose not to confront this terrorist disease. It festered and grew stronger, extending its infection into all parts of society. In Southern Lebanon, this cancer began to inhabit the social services and political infrastructure of society – creating an addiction among part of the populace.
Long-time Israeli adversaries, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, have been noticeably muted in their outrage against Israel. While this may change quickly if events escalate, this is an important development. It signifies that current events have created a new schism in the Muslim World. Islam has always been fractured in its allegiances, but also has been unified in its disdain for Israel. While this may still be true, non-Arab Iran may be causing Arab powers pause. A dominant Iran is not just a Western problem.
The rise of moderate Arab states has coincided with fundamentalist atrocities at the hands of Hezbollah, Hamas, and al-Qaeda. Patience is wearing thin among information-age Muslims that see their future in becoming more open and not less so. The message of the fundamentalists is at odds with new world views across the Middle East.
The stage is set for historical progress in the Middle East if Israel and the U.S. acts prudently. If Israel severely cripples Hezbollah and then retreats within its own borders, the fledgling Lebanese democracy will actually be strengthened. Iran will have its sphere of influence diminished and become even more isolated. The defeat would send a message to Hamas that they may be next.
However, if the U.S. and Israel overreact and force Syria into open conflict, Iran will have won. Moderate Muslims will be forced to choose sides. In such a clear-cut, black and white scenario, they will choose Syria – and thus Iran. Iran would be emboldened by any state-sponsored Arab-Israeli conflict and the people would be with them.
Radical fundamentalism crumbles when people are forced to contemplate the rationale of their decisions in a complex world. Moral judgments are much less evident than religious ones. Thus, as long as this ceases to be about Jews and Muslims, the world wins.
The prognosis is bright if we follow doctor’s orders.
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